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    Russian Civil Aviation: News

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    Vladimir79

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Vladimir79 on Mon Nov 01, 2010 2:41 am

    Unlucky plane

    UAC is considering closing the project Tu-204SM

    President of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) Alexei Fedorov, the first time officially acknowledged that the production of Tu-204 and Tu-204SM can be minimized. The reason for the lack of customers, which, according to experts, due to too high a price on the liners. As the sources of RBC daily, the decision to close the project will take the government in early November, since such a step would lead mass layoffs and partial preservation of the Ulyanovsk aviation plant.

    Alexei Fedorov in Kiev yesterday said he would not rule out folding Tupolev aircraft production, though later the official representative of the KLA adjusted statements of its leader, noting that the complete closure of the project can be no question. "We have assembled a working group to draft the Tu-204, which included representatives of the KLA, Tupolev, Ilyushin Finance and Irkut." Manufacturing will not be closed because it could be a blow to the operating companies "- said the spokesman for the KLA .

    For the first time about the possible closure of the project Tu-204 first appeared in March this year. As mentioned by sources close to the KLA, the Ulyanovsk factory was left without customers. At that time, the KLA was only a contract for the construction of two Tu-204-300 for the presidential administration. Other Russian customers waiting for emergence of a new modification of the Tu-204SM, release dates which are constantly moved. As then noted, instead of the 2009 plane can appear only in 2011, but in case of further delay, there is a risk that the program will be phased out altogether. The first customer of the Tu-204SM should speak an Iranian company Iran Air Tour, but because of U.S. sanctions, the contract was canceled (the developer of PS-90A2 is an American Pratt & Whitney). Another customer was to become the airline's Moscow (signed a preliminary agreement to supply 15 cars from the end of 2011). However, the airline has not confirmed its willingness to enter into firm contract. Yesterday, representatives of Moscow were unavailable for comment.

    In early October, save the program offered the head of the National Reserve Corporation (NRC), Alexander Lebedev. He promised to buy 44 Tu-204SM for its airline Red Wings. However, the businessman wanted to spend the money to buy aircraft, which are expected to receive from the sale of its stake in leasing company Ilyushin Finance (as reported in a letter to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and a copy is available to RBC daily). At the same time, the businessman has openly declared inadmissible for the airline's cost of airplanes. Lebedev said he is ready to fly airplanes for 700-750 mln. However, the manufacturer calls a different price - 1.3 billion rubles. "But in order for it to be competitive, the aircraft should cost the plant about 1 billion rubles." - Said the spokesman for IFC.

    According to sources, RBC daily, the new version of the product line UAC (which is now being discussed) there are no projects Tu-204, Tu-204SM, Tu-214 Tu-334. This week's issue of introducing a Tu-204SM in the product line discussed in the KLA, but this requires contracts not less than 40 aircraft. The fate of this project will be considered by the Government in November. According to sources, RBC daily, this level of decision-making due to the fact that closing the program will lead to negative social consequences due to staff reductions at the Ulyanovsk aviation plant.

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    Austin

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Austin on Mon Nov 01, 2010 3:44 am

    If that happens it would be absolutely tragic and great loss for Russia Aviation Industry as a whole and I dont want to believe it as yet No cry cry

    I really had high hopes from the Government and few Civil Airliners that they would buy the Tu-204,Tu-204SM and Il-96 in decent numbers and keep production line running till 2016.

    I just hope the military positively looks at Tu-204P as a suitable replacement for IL-38 and Tu-142M MPA.

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Austin on Mon Nov 01, 2010 5:01 am

    IL-96-300 doing a CAT III 3B autolanding , autopilot engage Smile


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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  GarryB on Mon Nov 01, 2010 5:38 am

    Investment in new engine technology should be a priority, there is no point in designing aircraft if the lack of appropriate engines is making them nonviable competitors to western designs.
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    Vladimir79

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Vladimir79 on Mon Nov 01, 2010 6:08 am

    The Tu-204 line of aircraft is dead.

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Austin on Mon Nov 01, 2010 6:14 am

    Vladimir79 wrote:The Tu-204 line of aircraft is dead.

    Not yet , BTW do you ever bring good news and have an optimistic outlook Wink
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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  GarryB on Mon Nov 01, 2010 6:17 am

    Perhaps this is the UACs equivelent of "If we can't get it in Russia we will go foreign" threat.

    If you don't buy our plane we can't justify the upgraded versions you are waiting for, so if you don't order the plane this is based on not only will you not get the future plane but lots of people will be unemployed and likely move to high tech western jobs working for Boeing or Airbus.

    Hardly an idle threat as the centre for maintainence was set up n Moscow to maintain Boeings because Russian aerospace ability is equal to western ability but those Russian specialists work for less.
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    Vladimir79

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Vladimir79 on Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:21 am

    Austin wrote:

    Not yet , BTW do you ever bring good news and have an optimistic outlook Wink

    When I see it... Bulava for example. Government has to earn my faith now. The days of giving it freely are gone.

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Austin on Mon Nov 01, 2010 2:49 pm

    GarryB wrote:Perhaps this is the UACs equivelent of "If we can't get it in Russia we will go foreign" threat.

    If you don't buy our plane we can't justify the upgraded versions you are waiting for, so if you don't order the plane this is based on not only will you not get the future plane but lots of people will be unemployed and likely move to high tech western jobs working for Boeing or Airbus.

    Hardly an idle threat as the centre for maintainence was set up n Moscow to maintain Boeings because Russian aerospace ability is equal to western ability but those Russian specialists work for less.

    Working for Boeing or Airbus will not help in development of Russian Aerospace Industry specially the Civil Aviation.

    UAC is right in that they need decent orders to improve its production and technology base , It is now up to the government to support programs like Tu-204 and IL-96 which are quite good platforms for Military and Special Purpose development.

    For eg I propose that Tu-204 be further developed into new generation of ASW Aircraft Tu-204P and New ELINT/Government Transport Aircraft for Inter Russia Travel.

    Tu-204SM will certainly win some small orders on its own merits.

    IL-96-400 based aircraft should be developed as new generation Tankers/Aerial Refuellers , AWACS A-100 and replace old IL-86 based Air Borne Command post with new IL-96 based one.

    Now IL-96 cost accoring to wiki is $50 million and the new IL-476 cost $100 million as per its factory , IL-96 is so much competitively priced and it offer better fuel efficiency , longer range and modern aerodynamics compared to its 20 years old design IL-76.

    All in all I see good potential for IL-96 and Tu-204 if Russian Government supports its initially and there is always a replacement market for traditional Russian customers that it can target.

    This way it can support the civil industry by subsiding its development and Militarily it gets a better aircraft.

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  GarryB on Tue Nov 02, 2010 3:02 am

    In other words consider Vlads word as that of pessimist.

    He will be right sometimes of course, but I think even he will be hoping he is wrong sometimes... like in this case.

    For want of a better engine a good aircraft might fail...

    Of course that is something that actually happens all the time in places like Britain, and of course Canada with the Avro Arrow.
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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  GarryB on Tue Nov 02, 2010 3:19 am

    I fully agree with you.

    The problem is that when they start playing these games they stop thinking of reality.

    Military officials saying they will buy foreign technology is fine, but you need to remember that a western military manufacturing company will charge more because they have to fund R&D themselves.
    R&D is expensive because you are working with all the latest technologies in many fields. The problem is that you need good communication with your military to work out what they are doing and where they are going so you know what sort of things will be needed.

    In the west there are organisations that work with new technology and try to adapt it to military purposes. DARPA springs to mind and a centre for that very thing. (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency).

    Without such an organisation you will get ten different companies all working on similar problems and coming up with solutions that are different and not interchangable. Ten R&D budgets spent on solutions when if you stepped back you could look at the solutions and say... these two are the best ideas... try working on these and the other 8 companies can use their money on different problems and when the two results are in you can evaluate them and decide which one everyone uses. It might become clear that one solution is best, or a combination of the two might be best. Either way less money and effort and time is wasted.

    During the Soviet period because of secrecy there was a lot of wasted effort and money.
    The reality is that the problem is not with UAC, the Tupolevs and Ilyusions are every bit as good as western equivelents... the problem right now is with engines. A bit of a funding boost and support for the engine makers to create either all new engines or to boost the performance of existing engines without American input and they would get sales. The thing is that a lot of countries around the world can't or wont buy American so it makes no sense trying to put American parts in Russian aircraft.

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Austin on Tue Nov 02, 2010 4:26 am

    Vladimir79 wrote:When I see it... Bulava for example. Government has to earn my faith now. The days of giving it freely are gone.

    Bulava is an example of systematic decay in some parts of Russian Defence industry , this decay has happened due to underfunding of enterprises over decades , lack of auditing of suppliers possibly to reduce cost.

    There are too many things that went wrong with Bulava and no one single entity is responsible for it , its a systematic failure

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Austin on Tue Nov 02, 2010 4:37 am

    GarryB wrote:For want of a better engine a good aircraft might fail...

    Of course that is something that actually happens all the time in places like Britain, and of course Canada with the Avro Arrow.

    Very True , Now the PS-90A2 is a engine jointly developed by US P&W and Russia and due to Iran sanction issue P&W refused to supply parts that power that engine leading to a body blow to Tu-204SM prospects to Iran. It was a deal for 5 aircraft with option to buy 25 more and license built it in Iran.

    This would have been the biggest deal and now its the biggest loss for Russian Civil Aviation Industry , I really do not know why they cant co-operate with a more neutral country like France and build a decent engine rather then opt for US , they already did for Sam146 Engine built jointly with Snecma.

    US too managed to kill the big deal for civil aviation and denied Iran a decent transport aircraft , they did this before when P&W Canada refused to supply engine after Russia-Georgia war and that led to delays in project.

    Its really naive for Russia to depend on US for such project knowing well US would just sanction such things even post sales support will be affected if such sanctions come.
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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  GarryB on Tue Nov 02, 2010 7:55 am

    I see Hilary Clinton has made a statement supporting Japanese claims to the Kuril Islands... Russia just needs to get the picture...

    What ever the US says... just smile and nod and don't sign anything and just work with everyone else. The US is not the centre of the universe no matter what they believe and it just isn't worth dealing with them at any useful level.

    The US is just used to using its economic power as a weapon so if you invest in the US expect to be used.

    The secret is clearly to buy technology rather than use foreign parts so that you make the stuff yourself and can control who receives it and who doesn't. (Again the problem with buying the US stuff is that in actual fact if you read the agreement you are actually only leasing it... despite the high price... and they reserve the right to control who you can sell it to even when you don't want it any more. The cost of our Skyhawks in storage is several million a year and we had buyers but the US didn't approve... personally I think we should take them out to deep water and dump them in the sea... but I am sure some greenies will object to that too. ) :roll :

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Austin on Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:09 am

    Its US policy to off balance country and keep the pot hot , so I am not surprised they made that statement supporting Japan their allay.

    The US would really love to see Russia in a low state of equilibrium and pin it down.

    I just hope the Russian leader see the message read it right and develop better relations with European friends like France , Italy and German and just leave US to its state.

    US is a dying superpower with imminent rise of China , India ,Russia and many other players , its high time Russia focusses on developing the technology and funds it well.

    The problem of buying the technology is it can help short term but cant help in developing technology base or give data points and help in learning curve , for eg India has got the technology for Single Crystal Blade from AL-31FP but still in market for TOT to develop single crystal blade for Kaveri Engine.


    The best way is to develop it yourself the second best way is to co-develop it.
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    Vladimir79

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Vladimir79 on Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:27 am

    The engine dependency is a part of it, but the biggest concern for the aircraft is the cost. At $40 million per aircraft, it just isn't competitive with Western models that offer more fuel efficiency and better avionics. Russian sales have always been based on low cost efficient solutions and Tu-204 is not it.

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Austin on Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:35 am

    Vladimir79 wrote:The engine dependency is a part of it, but the biggest concern for the aircraft is the cost. At $40 million per aircraft, it just isn't competitive with Western models that offer more fuel efficiency and better avionics. Russian sales have always been based on low cost efficient solutions and Tu-204 is not it.

    Vlad , thats not true

    Check the Boeing Commercial Price list
    http://www.boeing.com/commercial/prices/index.html

    Even a basic 737-600 cost any where between $51- $56 million and Airbus A320 cost $ 55 million.

    At $40 million Tu-204 is much cheaper and its much bigger aircraft then B737/A-320 , its more in 757 class.

    I think Engine is a big dependencies , plus lack of local market , plus lack of military support has been a nemesis of Tu-204 , technologically they can still get better and match western bird in price/efficiency/comfort but the other factor mentioned above is a killer.
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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Vladimir79 on Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:37 am

    GarryB wrote:In other words consider Vlads word as that of pessimist.

    In other words, consider it the voice of experience. I lived it, seen it, worked in it and followed before there was such a thing as the WWW.
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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  GarryB on Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:48 am

    The Russian MIC doesn't need all its organs removed and replaced.

    It has been lying in bed for 20 years and has lost touch.

    Some parts are so behind and the cost of getting them up to speed is comparable to the cost of a new component so in some cases buying new makes sense, but most of the body simply needs to start exercising.
    And example would be in ammo... after reading about old obsolete ammo stores I am sure they could do with large orders for ammo for the various items they want. No point in buying new planes and upgrading older planes if you don't have the new ordinance to use with them.

    In some cases the capacity was never there because some company in what is now a foreign country used to make it. A good example is jet trainer aircraft, but the Russian companies came up with two very viable alternatives for that.
    Optics has traditionally been mainly from Belarus, but that can also change too.

    The main problem is that some expect change overnight, that after lying in bed that suddenly the MIC will be able to leap up and run a full marathon, which is clearly unreasonable.

    Right now the nuclear triad will protect Russia from major attack, while its military is being reorganised it appears to be in disarray, but the important stuff... the C4IR stuff is being worked on. The C4IR is the brain stem, brain, and central nervous system... so obviously it needs to be working. Once this is going then you need to build all the structures you need for a mobile army/navy/airforce, with all components working together.

    You don't want to p!ss away money, but you do want to spend money where it is useful and the Tu-214SR is deemed useful. This means it makes sense to produce the aircraft it is based on... even if it means a government subsidy on the sly (Yeah like the US and Europe don't do it already for Boeing and Airbus respectively) then so be it.
    Equally there were never plans to make 8,000 T-90s, they only ever planned to make about 1,500-2,000 of them. This means that for numbers they will need about 5,000 T-72s upgraded to a more T-90 compatible level (sharing components to a level where they are compatible and therefore cheaper to buy, cheaper to operate etc etc). This means the T-72 upgrades could start right now and keep the last tank maker working... 500 per year would be a good start.
    Then when the C4IR system is ready... probably about 2012 they can finalise the upgrade for the T-90 and apply that to existing vehicles and make some new vehicles to take numbers up to the planned 1.5-2k.
    This will get the tank plant working and reduce operational costs for the Russian army because the tanks they get will become more and more alike.

    It should be accepted that an item that enters service needs to be upgraded as improvements become available. As such getting something in service is the first step and then the next step is to look at how it needs to be improved. There is no point making more T-90s till its upgrade has been finalised, but with the T-72 upgrade ready then there is equally no reason not to start putting it into production. A few extra vehicles could be upgraded and used for gifts to countries that already operate the T-72 but wouldn't be able to afford a T-90. This might help win a few upgrade contracts and improve relations that might lead to other trade.

    In other words, consider it the voice of experience. I lived it, seen it, worked in it and followed before there was such a thing as the WWW.

    Don't get me wrong Vlad, I respect your opinion and your cynicism, I agree that they seem to be well founded from your experience and history. Things that should happen often never do for many reasons.

    I just like to see the glass as half full... in everything. It makes it easier to get out of bed in the morning.
    Of course I am old enough that I should know better, but I am also old enough to know what leads to a smile all day and what leads to an ulcer. Smile
    If the Russian military don't order any tank upgrades or new tanks and by 2018 their tank industry collapses and they have to buy Chinese copies of the tanks they couldn't afford to make themselves then I will be disappointed, but politicians are good at disappointing people. Very Happy
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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  GarryB on Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:55 am

    Aw come on... I have been in a 767 in economy class and I can tell you lots of words were going through my mind starting with c and comfort wasn't one of them...

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Austin on Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:11 am

    It would really beat me and my senses if the next generation of AWACS , Tanker and Special aircraft is not based on IL-96-400 and Tu-204-300 variant over the new Il-476.

    The IL-476 declared cost is $100 million , the Il-96 cost $50 - 60 million and Tu-204 cost $ 40 million.

    Would beat me why cant you develop Tanker/AWACS based on IL-96-400M and Special Aircraft/ASW on Tu-204 just on cost grounds.

    I would think these new gen aircraft will be better on other paramaters like fuel efficiency,range,maintenance.

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  GarryB on Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:35 am

    The Il-76 was designed to carry heavy loads... it has engines that are rather too powerful and therefore also not so efficient for long range cruising.
    The only reason it was used for the tanking role and the AWACs role was because it was able to carry enough weight to do the job.
    The other AWACs aircraft used the Tu-95s basic design and engines for long range cruising performance (the Tu-126).

    The Tu-214 AND the IL-96 are both far better platforms for tankers and AWACS aircraft because they are wide body aircraft designed for long cruising flights with relatively heavy loads.

    The reality is that the Il-476 will be a good transport, but their new focus on mobility means they can't afford to have their tankers also being their transports. That works ok when you either transport ground forces OR you send in aircraft with tanker support.
    Under their new doctrine they will need to do both so the idea of a tanker/transport... although a good one, becomes a bad one.

    Personally I would like to see the Il-96 used as the A-100 AWACs aircraft and both the Il-96 and the Tu-214 as tanker aircraft.
    Very simply the Tu-214 would be great for all the tactical aircraft like the Mig-29s and Su-27s and Su-35s and Stealth fighters, while the larger capacity of the Il-96 will make it better for the support of the Bears and Blackjacks that need rather more fuel per refuelling.

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Austin on Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:59 am

    Agreed Garry

    I think a lot of this has to do with reputation in the market as much about capability ( much like you would buy a expensive Boeing 737 over Tu-204 because of reputation although the latter is cheaper and bigger ) , the IL-76 has gained the reputation of being a task master and can take hits and survive and do its job.

    The proliferation of IL-76 also makes a better IL-76 a logical choice to keep maintainence,training to the minimum.

    But if russia makes the move to IL-96 and Tu-204 , the others too would see a reason and logic would follow.
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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Vladimir79 on Tue Nov 02, 2010 10:04 am

    Austin wrote:
    Vladimir79 wrote:The engine dependency is a part of it, but the biggest concern for the aircraft is the cost. At $40 million per aircraft, it just isn't competitive with Western models that offer more fuel efficiency and better avionics. Russian sales have always been based on low cost efficient solutions and Tu-204 is not it.

    Vlad , thats not true

    Check the Boeing Commercial Price list
    http://www.boeing.com/commercial/prices/index.html

    Even a basic 737-600 cost any where between $51- $56 million and Airbus A320 cost $ 55 million.

    At $40 million Tu-204 is much cheaper and its much bigger aircraft then B737/A-320 , its more in 757 class.

    I think Engine is a big dependencies , plus lack of local market , plus lack of military support has been a nemesis of Tu-204 , technologically they can still get better and match western bird in price/efficiency/comfort but the other factor mentioned above is a killer.

    Well then, the cost must have shot up to $50+ million. Reports say it costs as much as a 737 and A320. If airlines find it competitive it would get more orders.

    Engine is not only dependency, it is money and work being done outside Russia.

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    Re: Russian Civil Aviation: News

    Post  Austin on Tue Nov 02, 2010 10:22 am

    Tu-204SM makes discount
    Maxim Pyadushkin

    Long-haul planes Tu-204SM can get cheaper, provided a large order. developer of this machine, "Tupolev", said that after talks with state corporation Russian Technologies and equipment suppliers for the Tu-204SM, it was determined that the basic heading home purchase components may reduce cost of aircraft-set at 27 -30%.

    Recall that the need to reduce the cost of the aircraft occurred in September, after the airline Atlant-Soyuz, which is placed through a leasing company Ilyushin Finance Co ". a firm order for 15 machines of this type, has notified the lessor, which may terminate the contract due to high prices and poor quality build the aircraft.

    However, componen t suppliers have put forward a counter-condition: to provide a firm order for delivery through 2016, 44 SM of this type. As stated in the past this week, an international aviation forum "Wings of Russia" IFC CEO Alexander Rubtsov, such a contract is being discussed and could be signed before the end of the year.

    Apparently, the customer will become a charter airline Red Wings, as previously stated its owner Alexander Lebedev. This airline has already staked solely on the Tu-204-100, now in its park 9 cars of this type.
    According to Rubtsov, the first Tu-204SM is already preparing to start flight tests. "This aircraft is made by our terms of reference and we believe that it had eliminated all the shortcomings of the Tu-204-100" - the head of IFC.

    Piece volumes increases the cost of the production cost of aircraft, making them uncompetitive compared to Western counterparts - both in price and quality. It is a vicious circle: the airlines do not want to place orders, and manufacturers can not reduce prices.

    If a contract with the Red Wings would still be signed, the Ulyanovsk Aviastar-SP to meet until 2016, will produce about 7-8 Tu-204SM per year, not counting the other orders. Recall that the highest rate of production of Tu-204 was achieved in 2008 - 6 aircraft per year. And last year in Ulyanovsk collected only 5 cars in this family.

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